How Moving Trends Could Make 3 Key Swing States Go Red During Presidential Elections

Movement patterns over the past four years may play a role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, according to a new report from the Realtor.com® economic research team.

With just weeks to go before the election pitting Donald Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris, the analysis suggests which states are relatively more popular with red or blue home buyers, based on Realtor’s online shopping traffic data. com from January 2021 to September 2024.

The report finds that of the seven major swing states considered competitive in this election cycle, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina have drawn relatively more interest from red home buyers.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin and Nevada seem more popular with blue-chip homebuyers.

The two remaining swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, showed mixed results that didn’t show a clear trend one way or the other.

If the other swing states end up voting along the partisan lines shown in the report, it could mean those two states could determine the outcome of the election.

The report provides a window into how recent migration trends could affect the election, but is not a prediction of statewide election results, which will depend on a host of factors, including voter preferences on key issues.

“The impact of migration on election outcomes is a compelling topic of discussion, sparking interest in how changing populations could reshape the political landscape,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale. “As more people move across state lines, their voting habits may have the potential to affect election results, especially in swing states, where even small changes in the electorate can tip the scales.”

How the study tracked buyer interest in red and blue homes

To assess how recent migration trends may affect the 2024 presidential election, the study combined Realtor.com online shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024 with the results of the 2020 presidential election at the level the county.

Using these election results, the economic research team determined the likelihood that each house view online would be associated with a red, blue or independent voter.

For example, if 60% of voters in the 2020 election favored the Democratic candidate, then the team assumed that 60% of online real estate listing views from that county are from blue-chip buyers.

The study does not take into account factors such as income, age or housing preferences that may influence online home buying behaviors, and assumes that the typical home buyer’s voting preferences are proportional to their current county of residence.

Based on this assumption, between January 2021 and September 2024, 56.5% of web traffic to Realtor.com came from blue buyers, 41.7% from red buyers, and the remaining 1.8% from independent buyers.

The study then compares the relative shares of total red and blue out-of-state shopping traffic received by homes in each state, as well as the retention rate of red and blue home buyers in each state.

For example, over the past four years, Wisconsin has received 2.35% of total out-of-state buyer interest from blue buyers, more than the 2.23% total share from red buyers.

Wisconsin also held a higher share of searches from blue shoppers looking within the state (71.52%) than red shoppers (70.7%).

As a result of these trends, the report postulates that Wisconsin could shift bluer in 2024. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, won the state by 0.63% in 2020, after Trump won there by 0.77% in 2016.

How the study tracked buyer interest in red and blue homes

To assess how recent migration trends may affect the 2024 presidential election, the study combined Realtor.com online shopping traffic data from January 2021 through September 2024 with the results of the 2020 presidential election at the level the county.

Using these election results, the economic research team determined the likelihood that each house view online would be associated with a red, blue or independent voter.

For example, if 60% of voters in the 2020 election favored the Democratic candidate, then the team assumed that 60% of online real estate listing views from that county are from blue-chip buyers.

The study does not take into account factors such as income, age or housing preferences that may influence online home buying behaviors, and assumes that the typical home buyer’s voting preferences are proportional to their current county of residence.

Based on this assumption, between January 2021 and September 2024, 56.5% of web traffic to Realtor.com came from blue buyers, 41.7% from red buyers, and the remaining 1.8% from independent buyers.

The study then compares the relative shares of total red and blue out-of-state shopping traffic received by homes in each state, as well as the retention rate of red and blue home buyers in each state.

For example, over the past four years, Wisconsin has received 2.35% of total out-of-state buyer interest from blue buyers, more than the 2.23% total share from red buyers.

Wisconsin also held a higher share of searches from blue shoppers looking within the state (71.52%) than red shoppers (70.7%).

As a result of these trends, the report postulates that Wisconsin could shift bluer in 2024. President Joe Biden, a Democrat, won the state by 0.63% in 2020, after Trump won there by 0.77% in 2016.

Overall, more states could go red, according to the study

Across the country, the study found that migration patterns suggest 22 states could shift to become more red, while eight states plus Washington, D.C., could lean more blue, compared to the last election.

Twelve currently red states – Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming – could trend redder.

Seven blue states — California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon and Washington — may also lean more red, the study found.

Currently red states that could be moved bluer were Alaska, Florida and Ohio. Meanwhile, four blue strongholds—Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, DC, and Maine—may lean even bluer.

Twenty states showed mixed trends that did not suggest a clear shift, according to the study.

While a state may shift more red or blue due to migration patterns, the impact likely won’t be large enough to change a state’s presidential vote, except perhaps in the seven contested swing states.

Red and blue home buyers both favor the South

The study finds that out-of-state homebuyers both blue and red showed strong interest in homes in the South, a trend possibly driven by the region’s relatively affordable housing markets and warmer climate.

Florida was the top online home search state for both affiliations, with 12.9% of all blue buyers and 12.8% of all red buyers.

The Sunshine State also had the highest retention rate among blue buyers, with 76.1% of blue traffic from Florida remaining in-state, compared to 74.4% of red traffic.

Among red shoppers, Michigan had the highest retention rate, with 75.56% of red traffic from Michigan remaining in-state, compared to 74.21% of blue traffic.